Saturday, September 23, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 18 - 22 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The biggest news was in purchase mortgage applications, hurricane ...
Friday, September 22, 2017

On August housing permits and starts, curb your enthusiasm

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 - by New Deal democrat Hurricanes Harvey and Irma together affected over 10% of the housing market at minimum. That's one of three g...
Thursday, September 21, 2017

Hurricane adjusted initial jobless claims for the week of September 9: 229,000

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 - by New Deal democrat I am repeating an exercise I undertook in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy disrupted the initial claims data: estimati...
Wednesday, September 20, 2017

The asterisk in real median household income

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a follow-up to the post I wrote last week about the latest data on real median household income. One...
Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Hurricane workarounds for industrial production and housing

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 - by New Deal democrat Hurricane Harvey has already affected some of the August data releases.  Irma has already started to affect some...
Saturday, September 16, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 11 - 15 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The effects of Hurricane Harvey have shown up in a number of data ...
Friday, September 15, 2017

2.5 cheers for 2016's new high in real median household income!

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 - by New Deal democrat Given that I consider jobs and wages for average Americans my #1 focus, it's only fair that I write about th...
Thursday, September 14, 2017

Hurricane adjusted initial claims for week of Sept. 2: 239,000

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 - by New Deal democrat Last week I promised I would repeat an exercise I first undertook in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy disrupted the in...
Tuesday, September 12, 2017

More JOLTS hard data weakness in July

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 -  by New Deal democrat I have been a dissenter about the JOLTS reports for over a year (although, perusing the intertoobs yesterday...

Housing (un)affordability: an unholy triad

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 - by New Deal democrat What is the problem with the housing market?  Is it unaffordable house prices? Rents?  Maybe both! Which leaves...
Monday, September 11, 2017

The Chicago Fed revises its Adjusted Credit Conditions Index

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 - by New Deal democrat Last week the Chicago Fed announced backdated revisions to its Adjusted Financial Conditions Index. Since this chan...
Saturday, September 9, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 4 - 8 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Harvey and Irma are going to wreak havoc with some of the numbes.
Friday, September 8, 2017

Are consumers on the cusp of rolling over?

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 - by New Deal democrat We can divide the long leading indicators into producer, consumer, and financial. When we look at just the non-...
Thursday, September 7, 2017

A note on Hurricane Harvey and unemployment claims

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 - b y New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 298,000 this morning, a jump of over 50,000 from recen...
Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Comparing motor vehicle sales vs. real retail sales per capita

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 - by New Deal democrat I know, real clickbait-y headline, right?  This week is about the lightest for economic data I've ever seen, wit...
Monday, September 4, 2017

The single most important fact this Labor Day

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 - by New Deal democrat On Labor Day, highlighting the single most important secular problem in the US economy: If there i...
Saturday, September 2, 2017

Weekly Indicators for August 28 - September 1 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator column is  up at XE.com . Interest rates have improved, while there are several cracks in ...
Friday, September 1, 2017

The August jobs report smacked of late cycle deceleration

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  - by New Deal democrat As promised, here is my abbreviated and late take on this morning's employment report. While the addit...

Housekeeping note on the employment report.

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 - by New Deal democrat I will be running an errand when the employment report comes out at 8:30. I will put something up at about 10:...
Thursday, August 31, 2017

Trickle-down, with the emphasis on "trickle"

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Since the turn of the Millennium, a torrent of corporate tax cuts has resulted in a trickle of investment growth.  - by New Deal democra...