Saturday, July 22, 2017

Weekly Indicators for July 17 - 21 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  There was an improvement to positivity across all time frames this...
Friday, July 21, 2017

Why are mortgage applications so much stronger than home building?

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  - by New Deal democrat It's been a quandary all year.  I take a look at the possible reason why  over at XE.com .
Thursday, July 20, 2017

Trump's presidency is 1/8 done. The economy is still on Obama's autopilot. Where's the DOOOM?!?

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 - by New Deal democrat Today marks half a year since Donald Trump took the Oath of Office as President.  I just wanted to note that, so ...
Wednesday, July 19, 2017

June housing permits and starts: an improvement, BUT...

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 - by New Deal democrat Both housing permits and starts popped nicely in June compared with May. But in comparison to the last 12 months...
Tuesday, July 18, 2017

A quick and dirty approach to short leading indicators

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- by New Deal democrat Although I have downgraded my longer term forecast to neutral, my shorter term forecast remains positive. ...
Monday, July 17, 2017

Measuring underemployment as a share of the working age population

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 - by New Deal democrat I wanted to follow up on several items from this month's employment report: namely, part time for econo...
Saturday, July 15, 2017

Weekly Indicators for July 10 - 14 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com One week ago I downgraded my longer term forecast. That remains this...
Friday, July 14, 2017

Real retail sales concerning while industrial production shines

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 - by New Deal democrat Real retail sales is one of my favorite data series, because it tells us so much about the consumer economy.  T...
Thursday, July 13, 2017

An important deterioration in the long leading indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat The failure of interest rates to make a new low in the llast 12 months has important ramifications. This post i...
Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Trump: the endgame

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 - by New Deal democrat There was some economic news last week which is important for the long term, and I'll try to post about it l...
Tuesday, July 11, 2017

JOLTS and Labor Market Conditions Index: for once, a good report

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 - by New Deal democrat Usually I am the lone Debbie Downer when it comes to the JOLTS report, mainly because I think there is way too much ...
Sunday, July 9, 2017

A thought for Sunday: Trump voters and the "peasant mentality"

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 - by New Deal democrat I am currently reading a comprehensive tome on 19th century European history, "The Pursuit of Power," b...
Saturday, July 8, 2017

Weekly Indicators for July 3 - 7 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . This week, for this first time in years, there was a change in th...
Friday, July 7, 2017

June jobs report: great headline, but once again where are the wages?!?

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +222,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate rose +0.1% from 4.3% to 4.4% U6 underemployment rate ros...
Thursday, July 6, 2017

La araña

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 - by New Deal democrat Just a little aside.... Here is a photo of the dessert I got yesterday at my favorite local authentic Mexica...

Reality begins to sink in for GOPer economic confidence

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 - by New Deal democrat While we are waiting for tomorrow's employment report, here's a little something to chew on. In the ...
Wednesday, July 5, 2017

While houses and cars slow down, manufacturing picks up

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  - by New Deal democrat There were conflicting reports on the economy Monday, in the form of June vehicle sales vs. June manufacturing. ...
Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Happy 8th Independence Day, economic expansion!

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 - by New Deal democrat In lieu of a more traditional Independance Day post, in view of the fact that the economic expansion turned 8 ye...
Monday, July 3, 2017

A prescient forecast by the Senior Loan Officer Survey

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 - by New Deal democrat There has been a spate of Doomish commentary recently (for example, here ) claiming that the stalling of commeri...
Sunday, July 2, 2017

My Weekly Columns Are Up at XE

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US Equity and Economic Review US Bond Market Review International Economic Review