Saturday, April 29, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 24 - 28 at XE.com

›
  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  Stagnant real wages helped make for a punk Q1 GDP report, but the ...
Friday, April 28, 2017

Two hits and a miss on GDP and wages

›
- by New Deal democrat We got two pieces of good news from the GDP report this morning, and one piece of bad news for workers. F...
Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Declining positivity of background money and financial indicators

›
  - by New Deal democrat The supply, cost, and rationing of money and credit set the background for almost all other indicators.  I take ...
Tuesday, April 25, 2017

A high frequency indicator for credit conditions: the Chicago Fed'sFinancial Conditions Index

›
  - by New Deal democrat One particularly useful leading indicator that is handicapped by being reported only quarterly, and late, is th...

Dear Jazz: The First Thing to Do When You're Digging a Hole ...

›
The above picture is Jazz Shaw, who continually makes the argument that raising the minimum wage will cost jobs.        Mr. Shaw ...
Monday, April 24, 2017

My Weekly Analysis Is Up At XE

›
US equity week in review US bond market week in review International week in review
Sunday, April 23, 2017

A thought for Sunday: the economy is on autopilot. Pray that it stays that way

›
  - by New Deal democrat It's Sunday, so I get to step out from nerdy analysis, and opine as I please. Back in 2014, when there ...
Saturday, April 22, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 17 - 21 at XE.com

›
 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . No big change this week from the recent story, although one long ...
Friday, April 21, 2017

No, consumer debt service payments aren't signalling recession

›
 - by New Deal democrat When I see an article trumpeting an oncoming recession, I will usually take at least a quick look to see if mayb...
Thursday, April 20, 2017

Real wages and spending: I don't think consumers will roll over that easily

›
 - by New Deal democrat This is the second part of a post about "hard data" and consumer spending.  Yesterday I noted that s...

Maybe Jazz Shaw and John Hinderaker Should Read a Report Before Promoting its Result, Part II

›
     Several days ago, both John Hinderaker and Jazz Shaw promoted a story from the Washington Examiner, which in turn covered a new Harvard...
Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Amazon.com effect: retailers say they're not selling, but consumers report they are buying

›
  - by New Deal democrat This was originally one post but I think it works better divided into two parts. One of the issues I keep ...

Maybe Jazz Shaw and John Hinderaker Should Read Papers Before Promoting Their Results

›
Yesterday, the conservative blogsphere was on fire with a new report from the Harvard Business School that supposedly proved raising the min...
Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Jazz Shaw Still Can't Make the Minimum Wage Argument Stick

›
     Jazz Shaw desperately wants to make sure that his readers believe raising the minimum wage is a bad idea that will lead to job losses. ...

Good news or bad news, take your pick: March housing and industrial production

›
 - by New Deal democrat This morning's reports on housing permits and industrial production were good news or bad news, depending on ...
Saturday, April 15, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 10 - 14 at XE.com

›
  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . There is a major disconnect between now much retailers report the...
Friday, April 14, 2017

Stallling gas prices --> March deflation --> higher real indicators

›
 - by New Deal democrat There were a number of important indicators that were nominally lower or flat for March that were up in real ter...
Thursday, April 13, 2017

Five graphs for 2017: Q1 update

›
 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of the year, I identified 5 trends that bore particular watching, primarily as potentially setti...
Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Labor Market Conditions Index and JOLTS: late cycle, but no imminent downturn

›
 - by New Deal democrat Time for the monthly update of the Labor Market Conditions Index and JOLTs report.  Both of these give more in-...
Tuesday, April 11, 2017

If Hot Air Had Any Journalistic Integrity, They'd Be Printing a Retraction

›
     Jazz Shaw of the Blog Hot Air has routinely campaigned against the minimum wage.  Like most non-educated commentators, he uses a simpl...