Saturday, April 22, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 17 - 21 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . No big change this week from the recent story, although one long ...
Friday, April 21, 2017

No, consumer debt service payments aren't signalling recession

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 - by New Deal democrat When I see an article trumpeting an oncoming recession, I will usually take at least a quick look to see if mayb...
Thursday, April 20, 2017

Real wages and spending: I don't think consumers will roll over that easily

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the second part of a post about "hard data" and consumer spending.  Yesterday I noted that s...

Maybe Jazz Shaw and John Hinderaker Should Read a Report Before Promoting its Result, Part II

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     Several days ago, both John Hinderaker and Jazz Shaw promoted a story from the Washington Examiner, which in turn covered a new Harvard...
Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Amazon.com effect: retailers say they're not selling, but consumers report they are buying

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  - by New Deal democrat This was originally one post but I think it works better divided into two parts. One of the issues I keep ...

Maybe Jazz Shaw and John Hinderaker Should Read Papers Before Promoting Their Results

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Yesterday, the conservative blogsphere was on fire with a new report from the Harvard Business School that supposedly proved raising the min...
Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Jazz Shaw Still Can't Make the Minimum Wage Argument Stick

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     Jazz Shaw desperately wants to make sure that his readers believe raising the minimum wage is a bad idea that will lead to job losses. ...

Good news or bad news, take your pick: March housing and industrial production

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning's reports on housing permits and industrial production were good news or bad news, depending on ...
Saturday, April 15, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 10 - 14 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . There is a major disconnect between now much retailers report the...
Friday, April 14, 2017

Stallling gas prices --> March deflation --> higher real indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat There were a number of important indicators that were nominally lower or flat for March that were up in real ter...
Thursday, April 13, 2017

Five graphs for 2017: Q1 update

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 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of the year, I identified 5 trends that bore particular watching, primarily as potentially setti...
Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Labor Market Conditions Index and JOLTS: late cycle, but no imminent downturn

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 - by New Deal democrat Time for the monthly update of the Labor Market Conditions Index and JOLTs report.  Both of these give more in-...
Tuesday, April 11, 2017

If Hot Air Had Any Journalistic Integrity, They'd Be Printing a Retraction

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     Jazz Shaw of the Blog Hot Air has routinely campaigned against the minimum wage.  Like most non-educated commentators, he uses a simpl...
Monday, April 10, 2017

Prime working age employment up, participation up (finally) - now how about wages?

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 - by New Deal democrat The March jobs report finishes the first quarter, which make it easier to update some labor participation trend...

My Weekly Columns Are Up at XE

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US Equity Week in Review US Bond Market Week in Review International Week in Review
Saturday, April 8, 2017

Weekly Indicators for April 3 - 7 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The thesis that trouble in the brick and mortar retail sector mea...

Hot Air "Econ" Bloggers: Still Dumber Than a Box of Rocks

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     Thanks to a very busy work schedule, I've had less time to monitor and write about the "analysts" at Hot Air.  But, now ...
Friday, April 7, 2017

March jobs report: participation up, unemployment down, wage growth miserly

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +98,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate down 0.2% from 4.7% to 4.5% U6 underemployment rate down ...
Thursday, April 6, 2017

The return of the Doomers: OMG it's a slight pullback!

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 - by New Deal democrat There finally was enough of a soft patch in the data for the Doomers to raise their heads out of the peepholes.  ...
Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Jamie Dimon on labor force participatioin and disability

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  - by New Deal democrat First of all, sorry for the light posting this week.  I've had some urgent business I need to attend to irl....