The Bonddad Blog

Still nerdy after all these years

Saturday, April 1, 2017

Weekly Indicators for March 27 - 31 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat The vast majority of all indicators remain very positive.  This post is  up at XE.com
Friday, March 31, 2017

Positive Q4 2016 profits help long term outlook

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 - by New Deal democrat Corporate profits are a long leading indicator, but they are reported with a long lag. So Q4 2016 profits were f...
Thursday, March 30, 2017

Does productivity growth lead to wage growth? "Not really, no."

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 - by New Deal democrat I've seen a few articles recently claiming that low wage growth is because productivity by workers has been ...
Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Wage growth and labor force participation: a Big Picture summation

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 - by New Deal democrat The jobs and wages of average Americans is a major focus of my blogging, since they are a major component of Ame...
Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Variations on the Phillips curve: labor force participation and wage growth

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 - by New Deal democrat Over the last month or so, in a few posts I have looked at the relationship between labor force participati...
Sunday, March 26, 2017

My Weekly Columns Are Up At XE.com

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US Equity and Economic Week in Review US Bond Market Week in Review International Week in Review

A thought for Sunday: Thank You, Freedom Caucus!!! Plus, Democats should offer a plan to "Reform and Improve" Obamacare

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  - by New Deal democrat First of all, thank the Great Flying Spaghetti Monster for the GOP's Freedom Caucus!!! They have been the b...
Saturday, March 25, 2017

Weekly Indicators for March 20 - 24 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Among the entire array of indicators, only 3 were negatives this ...
Friday, March 24, 2017

Leading housing data continues to be positive

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  - by New Deal democrat We now have all of the February housing sales data.  With the exception of the least important series, the trend...
Thursday, March 23, 2017

Variations on the Phillips Curve: unemployment and underemployment

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 - by New Deal democrat This is part of a longer post I wanted to write, and if FRED didn't play so poorly with iPad I would put...
Wednesday, March 22, 2017

A look at yield curve compression

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 - by New Deal democrat Since the mid-1950s, an inverted yield curve has been perhaps the single most deadly harbinger of a recessio...
Tuesday, March 21, 2017

What's behind stalled nonsupervisory wage growth?

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 - by New Deal democrat Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers nominally has been stuck in the +2.3% to +2.5% range (or worse) for thre...
Monday, March 20, 2017

My Weekly Columns Are Up at XE

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US Bond Market Week in Review US Equity Market Week in Review International Week in Review
Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekly Indicators for March 13 - 17 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  This week it is pretty self-explanatory.  Nearly all short leading...
Friday, March 17, 2017

Housing, production, and JOLTS all good news

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  - by New Deal democrat We've had a good run of economic news this week. First, in the leading housing sector, both of the most...
Thursday, March 16, 2017

What is my favorite indicator, real retail sales, forecasting now?

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 - by New Deal democrat Real retails sales carries a lot of information about various other aspects of the economy, which is why it is my...
Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Wage earners tap the housing MAC again as real wages decline

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote about where we stand in the labor market cycle. I noted that I anticipate that nominal wag...
Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Where are we in the labor market cycle?

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 - by New Deal democrat In keeping with my big focus on jobs and wages for average Americans, let's take a look at the progressi...
Monday, March 13, 2017

Measures of underemployment continue to show improvement

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 - by New Deal democrat The unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is generally acknowledged to be decent, although not great.  But what of th...
Sunday, March 12, 2017

A thought for Sunday: for now the economy remains on automatic pilot --and that's good

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 - by New Deal democrat How much, if any, of the economy, has been influenced by the Trump/Ryan GOP government in Washington to date...
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