Saturday, January 14, 2017

Weekly Indicators for January 9 - 13 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Short term indicators are almost uniformly positive. Meanwhile th...
Friday, January 13, 2017

How close are we to "full employment"?

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 - by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman ignited a small kerfluffle this week when he suggested that we are close enough to full employ...
Thursday, January 12, 2017

Corporate profits lead stock prices, year-end 2016 update

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 -by New Deal democrat Corporate profits, as a long leading indicator, tend to lead stock prices, which are a short leading indicator. I...
Wednesday, January 11, 2017

Gas prices set to drive inflation over Fed's target

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  - by New Deal democrat In case you hadn't already noticed, that big decline in gas prices you saw at the pump has come to an e...
Tuesday, January 10, 2017

My forecast for the first half of 2017

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 -by New Deal democrat My forecast for the economy through the middle of the year is  Up at XE.com .

Taiwan Isn't Large Enough to Meaningfully Leverage Against China

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China has a GDP of a little over 11 Trillion dollars while Taiwan's is 523 billion.  China is over 20 times as large as Taiwan.  It simp...
Monday, January 9, 2017

Why John Taylor -- a Leading Candidate to Replace Yellen -- Shouldn't Be Fed President

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From Bloomberg: With just over a year remaining on Janet Yellen's current term as chair of the Federal Reserve, comments from three of...

Five graphs for 2017: #1, real wages and real consumer spending

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last week I have described 5 relationships that bear particular watching in 2017. #5 is the price of ...
Sunday, January 8, 2017

My Weekly Columns Are Up at XE.com

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International Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review US Equity and Economic Week in Review
Saturday, January 7, 2017

Weekly Indicators for January 2 - 6 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The indications for the first half of 2017 are really strong, but...
Friday, January 6, 2017

December jobs report: a positive report to close Obama's Presidency

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +156,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% from 4.6% to 4.7% U6 underemployment rate down ...

Jazz Shaw, the Frank Burns of Policy Analysis, Once Again Demonstrates His Ineptitude

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     I grew up on MASH.  During one episode, someone asks Hawkeye what Frank Burns knows on a topic.  Hawkeye responded, "there's ...
Thursday, January 5, 2017

Five graphs for 2017: #2, inflation and the Fed funds rate

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the fourth of five metrics I'll be paying particular attention to this year. The first thre...
Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Five graphs for 2017: #3, interest rates vs. residential construction

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 - by New Deal democrat For the last few years, I have picked out five metrics that particularly bear watching at the outset of the...
Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Will Inflation Be the Story of 2017?

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From Bloomberg: While the ISM sub-indexes can be volatile, the jump in prices caught the eye of factory managers and analysts, with survey...

Fiive graphs for 2017: #4, the US$

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the second of five graphs that bear watching in 2017.   The first was gas prices. The secon...
Monday, January 2, 2017

Five graphs for 2017: #5, gas prices

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last couple of years, I have identified a few relationships that I thought were particularly worthy of being ...

An Absolute Must Read on Foreign Policy

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From Politico.  This article is the first I've seen (there, of course, may be others) that explains Putin's game.  It's scary as...
Saturday, December 31, 2016

Weekly Indicators for December 26 - 30 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  Up at XE.com . Interest came down off recent highs to end the year. See you ag...
Friday, December 30, 2016

Marking my 2016 forecast to market

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(Plus a pyrrhic political presidential prediction)  - by New Deal democrat How did my economic forecast for2016, made one year ago, pan...