Saturday, February 13, 2016

Weekly Indicators for February 8 - 12 at XE.com

›
 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com  .  Lots and lots of "less worse."
Friday, February 12, 2016

The consumer is alright

›
 - by New Deal democrat [Updated with graphs] This morning's retail sales report gives us confirmation that the consumer economy - ab...
Thursday, February 11, 2016

The story on real wages: four measures showing actual improvement

›
 - by New Deal democrat In the last several years, I have written a number of posts documenting the stagnation in average and median wages,...
Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Powerline Economic Analysis: Continuing Their Clue Free Ways

›
     In a post titled "Talkin' Unemployment Blues" Scott Johnson of the Powerline Blog referenced the following chart from ...

The big trends of 2015 look like they are breaking down

›
 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  .  A whole bunch of important data series moved pretty much in lockstep in 2015....
Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Labor Market Conditions Index forecasts further job softness

›
 - by New Deal democrat Last summer I wrote that the Labor Market Conditions Index, a measure based on 19 components which was just re...
Monday, February 8, 2016

Just When You Thought The Boys At Powerline Couldn't Become More Economically Incompetent ...

›
     I have a confession: the boys at Powerline utterly fascinate me.  On paper, they are smart guys: all of them are ivy league educated an...

The problem with YoY measures, and a compensating rule of thumb

›
 - by New Deal democrat There is a serious problem with simple YoY measures:  they miss turning points.  By the time a YoY measure has c...
Sunday, February 7, 2016

Hint: if your yield curve model says the US was at high risk of recession in the 1960s and 1990s, your yield curve model is crap

›
 - by New Deal democrat I caught this over at Zero Hedge.  Since I can't find the original source online, it apparently started out ...

US Bond, US Equity and International Week in Review

›
These are over at xe.com International Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review US Equity and Economic Week in Review
Saturday, February 6, 2016

Weekly Indicators for February 1 - 5 at XE.com

›
 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at at XE.com  .  The big news this week was what happened to the US$.
Friday, February 5, 2016

Ed Morrissey Should Really Stop Writing About Economics

›
     Y'know ... Ed Morrissey of Hot Air is consistent.  For the last 8 years (which, interestingly enough, corresponds with the Obama pr...

January jobs report: an hours, wages, and participation surge under the headlines

›
- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 151,000 jobs added to the economy U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% to 4.9% With the expansion firm...
Thursday, February 4, 2016

Forecasting the 2016 election economy: it turns out consumers really do vote their wallets

›
 -  by New Deal democrat For the last 7 months, I have been engaged in a real-time experiement to see if I could use economic indicator...
Wednesday, February 3, 2016

My forecast for the 2nd half of 2016

›
  - by New Deal democrat My forecast for the 2nd half of this year is  up at XE.com .  US$ permitting . . . .
Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Another sign the industrial recession is bottoming: ISM inventories vs.new orders

›
 - by New Deal democrat The overall most important economic question this year is whether the industrial recession caused mainly by t...
Monday, February 1, 2016

Consumers have spent about 20% of their gas savings

›
 - by New Deal democrat Real personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1% in December, positive but something of a disappointment  c...
Sunday, January 31, 2016

John Hinderakar Continues His Long Period of Economic Incompetence

›
Update: Let's think about this:  As I show below, Minnesota is at full employment with solid, state-wide wage gains above the national a...

Weekly Bond, Equity and International Round-Up

›
International Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review Equity Market Week in Review
Saturday, January 30, 2016

Weekly Indicators for January 25 - 29 at XE.com

›
 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com  . The trend of some poor data becoming "less worse" conti...