Saturday, January 2, 2016

Weekly Indicators for December 28 - January 1 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators piece for the final week of 2015 is  up at XE.com  . Too soon to ttell, but we may be gett...
Thursday, December 31, 2015

Grading my 2015 forecast: a hit and a miss

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 - by New Deal democrat Here are the bottom line paragraphs from my 2015 forecast one year ago: This [the Index of Leading Indicator...
Wednesday, December 30, 2015

The 2015 housing market: a final wrap up and a look ahead

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 - by New Deal democrat I have my final post of the year  up at XE.com , taking a look at how housing sales, prices, and inventory have c...
Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Do the Underpants Recession Gnomes have a case after all?

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 - by New Deal democrat A couple of months ago, I lampooned what I called the "Underpants Gnomes theory of importing recession,...
Monday, December 28, 2015

Five graphs for 2015: final update

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 -  by New Deal democrat At the end of last year, I highlighted  5 graphs to watch in 2015.   Let's look back one last time. ...
Sunday, December 27, 2015

US Bond, US Equity and International Week in Review

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US Bond Market  US Equity International 
Saturday, December 26, 2015

Weekly Indicators for December 21 - 25 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com .  This week was virtually identical to last week.  The US consumer onc...
Thursday, December 24, 2015

Oil, the US$, and corporate profits

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 - by New Deal democrat Previously this week I have written that the effect of US$ strength has been the biggest economic story of 2...
Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Real disposable personal income growth: not too shabby

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning's release of personal income and outlays for November pretty much puts the last nail in th...
Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Gas prices and the US$ as short leading indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote a post for XE.com pointing out that the more international trade increased as a share of...
Monday, December 21, 2015

The strong US$ has been the big economic story of 2015

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  - by New Deal democrat This post is  up at XE.com  . It's that time of year when we begin to look back, and look forward.  I plan...
Sunday, December 20, 2015

Weekly Reviews At XE.com

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US Equity US Bond International 
Saturday, December 19, 2015

Weekly Indicators for December 14 - 18 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com. The resiliency of the US consumer continues in the face of the globa...
Thursday, December 17, 2015

November housing report: almost all great news

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 - by New Deal democrat The November housing report overall was excellent, but there is still one nagging open question. Let...

Industrial production: the commodity collapse gets an assist frommother nature

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 - by New Deal democrat I wanted to follow up on yesterday's industrial production numbers. First of all, here is the series...
Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Good news on housing, mixed on industrial production

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  - by New Deal democrat I'm on the road right now, so this will be a brief note without graphs. I'll update later. Housing can...
Tuesday, December 15, 2015

What November real retail sales tell us

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  looking at this metric 4 different ways, including as a harbinger for employment...
Monday, December 14, 2015

High yield junk bonds are imploding: We're DOOOOMED!!!

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 - by New Deal democrat The market for junk bonds is imploding.  Prices for CCC-rated corporate bonds are down 21% from their peak: ...
Sunday, December 13, 2015

Weekly US Equity, US Bond Market and International Summary

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US Equity US Bond Market International 

Forecasting the 2016 election economy: the "Bread and Peace" model

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the latest installment in my series, "Forecasting the 2016 election economy," a real-time ...