Saturday, November 28, 2015

Weekly Indicators for November 23 - 27 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator column is  up at XE.com  .  The intensified deflationary pulse that we have seen in the last...
Friday, November 27, 2015

Corporate profits (through Q3 2015) as leading indicator for quarterly stock prices

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 - by New Deal democrat I have an update  up at XE.com , comparing corporate profits through Q3 with stock prices.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Updating two mid-cycle consumer spending patterns

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  - by New Deal democrat Three years ago ,  I identified  a consistent pattern whereby retail sales grew faster than the broader cate...
Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Revised Q3 GDP: there's good news, and there's bad news

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  discussing this morning's revisions to Q3 GDP. While the revision was posi...
Monday, November 23, 2015

One long term indicator changes to Yellow

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 - by New Deal democrat  One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since...
Sunday, November 22, 2015

Week in Review: International, US Bond Market and US Equity Market

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International Week in Review US Bond Market Week in Review US Equity Market Week in Review
Saturday, November 21, 2015

Weekly Indicators for November 16 - 20 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com  . The recent intensification in commodity delcines, the dollar surg...
Thursday, November 19, 2015

Comparing total real labor compensation growth across economicexpansiions

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 - by New Deal democrat With few exceptions, people don't get a job for social reasons.  They go to work each day in order to earn ...
Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Psssst! Single family housing permits at nearly 8 year high

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  - by New Deal democrat Don't tell anybody!  I have a new post  up at XE.com , showing how single family vs. multi-unit construction...
Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Industrial production: oil patch down, manufacturing at new high

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- by New Deal democrat You will probably read some commentary from the usual suspects about how yet another negative industrial productio...
Monday, November 16, 2015

ECRI's "Deceptive" wage growth is actually pretty common

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  . ECRI has some new commentary claiming that wages are only growing because ag...
Sunday, November 15, 2015

International, Bond Market and Equity Market Columns Are Up At XE.com

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International Bond Market Equity Market
Saturday, November 14, 2015

Weekly Indicators for November 9 - 13 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators piece is  up at XE.com  .  The deflationary pulse intensified further this week.
Friday, November 13, 2015

As the global deflationary pulse intensifies, the SS US Eonomy takes on more water

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com .  There has been a renewed deflationary pulse in the global economy, and as a re...
Thursday, November 12, 2015

JOLTS Hires and Quits turn negative YOY; Labor Market Conditions Index uninspiring

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 - by New Deal democrat When it comes to the monthly JOLTS reports, most commentators in my opinion are missing the big story, focusi...
Wednesday, November 11, 2015

5 graphs for 2015: October update

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 -  by New Deal democrat At the end of last year, I highlighted  5 graphs to watch in 2015.   We are now 10 months through the ye...
Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Expect the boom in apartment construction - and rents - to continue

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  . Between stagnant wages and increasing demand from the large Millennial gener...
Monday, November 9, 2015

Forecasting the 2016 election economy: in which I respond to Nate Silver

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  -by New Deal democrat As you all know, I have been writing a series about "Forecasting the 2016 election economy." In genera...