Saturday, October 24, 2015

Condolences to BooMan

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 - by New Deal democrat One of the places I always stop by for political analysis is the BooMan Tribune.  Yesterday Booman's brother ...

Weekly Indicators for October 19 - 23 at XE.com

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 -by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator piece is  up at XE.com  . The changes were all positive this week, but the Big Story remains...
Friday, October 23, 2015

Forecasting the Presidential election: simply knowing whether the economy is expanding or in recession gives you the correct answer more than 2/3 of the time

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- by New Deal democrat If you want a quick and dirty guide to whether an incumbent political party will retain control of the White ...
Wednesday, October 21, 2015

September housing permits: a pause, but rising trend still intract

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com  , taking a look at the trends in housing permits and starts.
Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Forecasting the 2016 election: the "gatekeeper" role of social and moral issues

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 - by New Deal democrat Tom Schaller made a convincing case in "Whistling Past Dixie" that in the South, moral and social iss...
Monday, October 19, 2015

Steven Hayward Continues the Long History of Powerline's Economic Stupidity

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As I previously pointed out , Powerline has a long history of being 100% wrong on the economy.  From the "Fed is printing money so infl...
Sunday, October 18, 2015

Forecasting the 2016 election economy: social issues + the long arc of history

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 - by New Deal democrat This week housing permits will be reported.  That will give us most of the long leading indicators for Q3, and t...

Three Weekly Reviews Are Up At XE.com

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International Economic Review Bond Market Review Equity Market Review
Saturday, October 17, 2015

Weekly Indicators for October 12 - 16 at XE.com

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 -by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com  . The employment picture is really coming into focus, in the context ...
Friday, October 16, 2015

Inndustrial production ex-Oil Patch

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 - by New Deal democrat By now I'm sure you know that industrial production not only declined again in September, but has also fa...

The JOLTS report for August continues to underwhelm

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 - by New Deal democrat I continue to be underwhelmed by the monthly JOLTS reports.  Most commentators focus only on the job opening...
Thursday, October 15, 2015

Real retail sales show expansion past mid-cycle, but no oncoming recession

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 - by New Deal democrat With September inflation reported this morning, I can update one of my favorite series:  real retail sales. ...

Real aggregate wage growth declines slightly in September, but trend continues positive

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 - by New Deal democrat In my opinion, the single best measure of a labor market expansion is real aggregate wage growth. People don...
Monday, October 12, 2015

Q3 2015 update on corporate profits as a leading indicator for quarterly stock prices

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 - by New Deal democrat I have an updated post  at XE.com  .  If corporate profits are a long leading indicator, and stock prices a shor...
Sunday, October 11, 2015

My Three Weekly Reviews Are At XE.com

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International Week in Review Equity Market Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review

A thought for Sunday: in which I despair

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 - by New Deal democrat Over the last couple of years, more and  more blogs have closed down.  Sometimes, it is because the person has t...

My Three Weekly Review Are Up At XE

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International Week in Review Equity Market Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review
Saturday, October 10, 2015

Weekly Indicators for October 5 - 9 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator piece is  up at XE.com . The US data got just a skosh weaker.
Friday, October 9, 2015

Whilesaler inventories and sales show shallow industrial recession ongoing

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com .  The shallow industrial recession is real, and is not abating yet.

Ruh roh: Labor Market Conditions Index forecasts further deterioration in monthly jobs growth

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 - by New Deal democrat As I wrote several months ago , the Labor Market Conditions Index is a good leading indicator for YoY growth in...