Saturday, March 14, 2015

In which I look strangely at Paul Krugman

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 - by New Deal democrat Prof. Paul Krugman writes today : "When I tell people that macroeconomic analysis has been triumphantly su...

Weekly Indicators for March 9 - 13 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The effects of the West Coast port strike are abating.  Meanwhile...
Friday, March 13, 2015

The 3 dimensional Phillips curve as a forecasting tool

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  - by New Deal democrat Why do I continue to harp on the Phillips curve being best viewed as 3 dimensional, with the third dimension bei...

International Economic Week in Review: Causes of Global Deflation, Edition

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This is over at XE.com

February Retail sales: how big of an 'Ouch!'?

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com , discussing yesterday's retail sales report. Hold your fire until you see ...

The Phillips curve in 3 dimensions, animated

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that the Phillips curve might best be considered as three-dimensional, where the third axis was...
Thursday, March 12, 2015

The Phillips curve in the 21st century (or, The Phillips curve as a 3 dimensional foil)

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 - by New Deal democrat This is my third post about the possibility of the Fed raising rates as early as June. In the first post, I p...

A Two Year Comparison of the Yen, Australian Dollar, Loonie, US Dollar, Pound and Euro

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This is at XE.com
Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Inflation in the 21st century: Oil, not wage growth or unemployment, is the issue

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 - by New Deal democrat This post follows up on my last piece, in which I argued that there are historically non-existent wage or inflati...
Monday, March 9, 2015

Dear Federal Reserve: *Now* is the time to raise interest rates? RLY?? SRSLY?!?

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 - by New Deal democrat I am at a complete loss as to why the Federal Reserve might think that now is the moment to begin raising  intere...
Saturday, March 7, 2015

Weekly Indicators for March 2 - 6 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat You really need to begin to prepare for  a nasty Q1 GDP number .
Friday, March 6, 2015

February 2015 jobs report: headlines great, wages stink, underemployment mixed

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 295,000 jobs added to the economy U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% to 5.5% With the expansion firm...
Thursday, March 5, 2015

Another useful economic indicator: purchases of durable goods

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . Personal consumption expenditures for durable goods fails as a mid-cycle indi...

Another small sign of a slowdown

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  - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose last week to 320,000.  The four week moving average went up over 300,000 to 305,000....
Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Updating two mid-cycle indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat Ultimately I would like to have a set of indicators to describe an entire business cycle: long leading, short lea...
Tuesday, March 3, 2015

More signs point to a slowdown in Q1 US growth

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . There are accumulating signs of a slowdown in the US economy this quarter. N...
Monday, March 2, 2015

Wages in the service sector lead

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  - by New Deal democrat Some of the most interesting relationships I've ever uncovered have been the result of total serendipity.  S...
Sunday, March 1, 2015

A thought for Sunday: when will Happy Days be Here Again?

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 - by New Deal democrat My overarching theme about the economic news for the last 5 years is that it has been "positive, but not goo...
Saturday, February 28, 2015

A death scene for Spock

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 - by New Deal democrat As I have occasionally mentioned, I am a fossil.  I am also a nerd, which means I am thoroughly familiar with the...

Weekly Indicators for February 23 - 27 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com . It's time to consider that first Quarter GDP is going to be not...