Saturday, March 7, 2015

Weekly Indicators for March 2 - 6 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat You really need to begin to prepare for  a nasty Q1 GDP number .
Friday, March 6, 2015

February 2015 jobs report: headlines great, wages stink, underemployment mixed

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 295,000 jobs added to the economy U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% to 5.5% With the expansion firm...
Thursday, March 5, 2015

Another useful economic indicator: purchases of durable goods

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . Personal consumption expenditures for durable goods fails as a mid-cycle indi...

Another small sign of a slowdown

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  - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose last week to 320,000.  The four week moving average went up over 300,000 to 305,000....
Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Updating two mid-cycle indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat Ultimately I would like to have a set of indicators to describe an entire business cycle: long leading, short lea...
Tuesday, March 3, 2015

More signs point to a slowdown in Q1 US growth

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . There are accumulating signs of a slowdown in the US economy this quarter. N...
Monday, March 2, 2015

Wages in the service sector lead

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  - by New Deal democrat Some of the most interesting relationships I've ever uncovered have been the result of total serendipity.  S...
Sunday, March 1, 2015

A thought for Sunday: when will Happy Days be Here Again?

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 - by New Deal democrat My overarching theme about the economic news for the last 5 years is that it has been "positive, but not goo...
Saturday, February 28, 2015

A death scene for Spock

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 - by New Deal democrat As I have occasionally mentioned, I am a fossil.  I am also a nerd, which means I am thoroughly familiar with the...

Weekly Indicators for February 23 - 27 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at XE.com . It's time to consider that first Quarter GDP is going to be not...
Friday, February 27, 2015

GDP: Meh. But two forward-looking nuggets

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com , discussing this morning's revision to 4th Quarter 2014 GDP. I of the for...
Thursday, February 26, 2015

Welcome to good deflation: real retail sales flat, real average wages highest in 35 years

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  - by New Deal democrat What a difference falling gas prices make! By falling as low as $2.02 in January, gas prices helped deliver a -...

Pardon me while I pat myself on the back

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . On January 8 I called both the timing and the price of the bottom and the subs...

Dear Washington Post: may I please have Matt O'Brien's job?

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 - by New Deal democrat Writing in the Washington Post's 'Upshot' blog , Matt O'Brien claims "Why rising wages m...
Wednesday, February 25, 2015

The housing recovery is not faltering

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com , discussing the state of the housing market.  I agree wholeheartedly with Bill ...

Wage stagnation: primarily a story of manufacturing jobs

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  - by New Deal democrat This is a continuation of my examination of the impact of wages in goods-producing vs. services jobs.  On Monday...
Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Did real wages continue to decline in 2014? It (very much) depends on how you measure

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 - by New Deal democrat There's a new graph that has been created by the Economic Policy Institute showing that real wages continued ...
Monday, February 23, 2015

How wages in services vs. goods-producing jobs explain relative GDP growth during Recoveries (Hint: producing goods is better)

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 - by New Deal democrat This week I will put up several posts discussing the relative impact of goods-producing vs. service jobs in t...
Sunday, February 22, 2015

A thought for Sunday: the October forecast that near-record Siberian snow cover would lead to a brutal eastern US winter has been vindicated

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  - by New Deal democrat You know the drill.  It's Sunday so I can write about whatever interests me.  In this case, a long range wea...
Saturday, February 21, 2015

Weekly Indicators for February 16 - 20 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . A Siberian chill has overtaken many of the coincident indicators.