Saturday, January 17, 2015

Weekly Indicators for January 12 - 16 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . I've been saying that at some point soon mortgage application...

US Equity Week in Review For the Week of January 12-16

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     At the start of a new year, it's easy to fall into a pattern of thinking that the market will go up.  After all, it's the new y...
Friday, January 16, 2015

A "perfect" yield curve recession indicator: perfectly awful, that is

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new piece  up at XE.com , calling out some egregiously bad analysis regarding an allegedly perfect bond ...

Commodity Sell-Off Is A Demand And Supply Problem

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This is over at XE.com Demand is clearly contributing to the commodity sell-off.  After all, economies growing below potential obviously d...

Real retail sales for December: much better, thank you

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 - by New Deal democrat As promised, now that we know the CPI reading for December, here is a comparison of nominal retail sales (blue, l...
Thursday, January 15, 2015

Herewith a blog post about stock prices that does not predict a crash

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at XE.com . Investment analysts almost always say that stock prices anticipate corporate...

About that awful retail sales report

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  - by New Deal democrat Yesterday saw the second anomalous horrible number in 4 days from the Census Bureau.  Last Friday it was a big...
Wednesday, January 14, 2015

SPYs Clost At Important Technical Levels

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The SPYs have been in a consolidation pattern since the beginning of December.  At the close today, prices were right below key technical...

Ruble and Copper Are Dropping, Signaling Weakness

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These are over at XE.com Ruble Copper
Tuesday, January 13, 2015

More thoughts on wages from Friday's jobs report; the NFIB report as a leading indicator for wage growth

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  - by New Deal democrat As promised, I've put more thought into the decline of -0.2% in average wages in last week's December jo...

Yes, Virginia, the Republicans Are Economic Idiots

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We're not the only people noting how completely clueless the Republicans are about economic analysis: Virtually everything GOP critics...
Sunday, January 11, 2015

International Economic Preview for the Week of January 12-16

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This is up over at XE.com
Saturday, January 10, 2015

Weekly Indicators for January 5 - 9 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . A few more signs of weakness appeared this week.

US Market Review For the Week of January 5-9; Bond Market Is the Real Winner Edition

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     In writing a market review, the natural assumption (OK -- my assumption) is that it will involve equities.  After all, this is the mark...
Friday, January 9, 2015

Wages are heading in the wrong direction

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  - by New Deal democrat Earlier today I red-flagged wages as an issue in the December jobs report, which was otherwise good. Here'...

My 2015 forecast for the US economy

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  - by New Deal democrat My 2015 forecast is  up at XE.com . You probably won't be surprised.

International Week In Review; The Year Isn't Starting Off Well, Edition

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This is over at Xe.com We start the year with several areas of concern, beginning with the EU.  As I noted at the end of last year, the ...

December Jobs Report: Good on jobs, but red flag on wages

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 252,000 jobs added to the economy U3 unemployment rate down -.2% to 5.6% Wages and participation ...
Thursday, January 8, 2015

Ambarella, Inc. A Solid Growth Story

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     Before reading further: this article is my opinion.  I'm not asking you to buy or sell this security.  Do you own research to figur...

The bottom in gas prices is close

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 - by New Deal democrat There is good reason to believe that we are close to, if not at, the bottom in oil and gas prices. The main rea...