Saturday, May 3, 2014

Weekly Indicators for April 28 - May 2 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat There was a  real schizophrenic read  on Gallup consumer spending vs. the ICSC and Johnson Redbook this past wee...

International Week in Review: The US' Weak Growth Head Fake Edition

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This is over at XE.com http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/international-week-review-us-weak-growth-head-fake-edition
Friday, May 2, 2014

Is it really different this time? historical recoveries for low vs. high paid jobs

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last week there has been another spate of articles on the order of  The low wage job explosion  from CNN M...

Prime working age employment population ratio improves in 2014

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  - by New Deal democrat As I pointed out below, that the employment population ratio has increased while the percentage of the populatio...

April jobs report: a blowout (almost)

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- by New Deal democrat In April 288,000 jobs were added to the US economy.  The unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%, a new post-reces...
Thursday, May 1, 2014

More shallow DOOM about jobs at Daily Kos

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  - by New Deal democrat I haven't had enough time to clean up some draft posts this week, one of which is about the relative strengt...

March personal spending rebounds from winter doldrums as reflected in yesterday's GDP report

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post up  at XE.com . The very positive March personal spending report is consistent with the idea...
Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The decline in real private residential spending raises a yellow flag for US economic growth in 2015

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  - by New Deal democrat I discuss this aspect of today's first quarter GDP report in a post  over at XE.com .

1Q GDP: Blame the Weather

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This is up over at XE.com 1Q GDP: Blame the Weather: http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/1q-us-gdp-blame-weathe

Don't freak out about the poor 1st quarter GDP report (except for one thing)

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  - by New Deal democrat So GDP grew by the smallest amount possible, +0.1% annualized, in the first quarter of 2014. If you've bee...
Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Three Charts Show the Growing EU Deflation Threat

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This is up over at XE.com:   http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/three-charts-show-growing-eu-deflation-threat
Monday, April 28, 2014

My housing bet with Calculated Risk: March results

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 -  by New Deal democrat As most readers know  Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk and I have a charitable bet  about the direction of ...
Sunday, April 27, 2014

International Week in Review: US Housing Market Starting to Cause Concern Edition

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This is up over at XE.com http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/international-week-review-us-housing-market-starting-cause-conc...
Saturday, April 26, 2014

Weekly Indicators for April 21 - 25 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat After two very positive weeks, this week the high frequency data was  much more mixed .

I tell ya, I don't get no respect

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  - by New Deal democrat Joe Weisenthal at Business Insider writes that: [T]here are lots of different ways to measure housing (price,...
Friday, April 25, 2014

UK Recovery Gaining Momentum

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This is over at XE.com http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/uk-recovery-gaining-momentum
Thursday, April 24, 2014

The "rental affordability crisis" is real, but it's about declining real wages, not a bubble in rents

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  - by New Deal democrat Earlier this week there was a post at another site about the "rental affordability crisis."  Claimi...

US' Slow Recovery Is Still Intact

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All of the coincident indicators are still increasing. http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/us-slow-recovery-still-intact
Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Increased interest rates, asking prices taking a serious bite out of home sales

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a  new post up at XE.com  on new and existing home sales.  Total home sales are off -13.5% from their pea...

Yield Curve Is Flattening

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Above is a chart of the difference between the 30 and 5 year CMTs -- constantly maturing treasuries.  Since the beginning of December, th...