Saturday, April 5, 2014

International Week in Review: The ECB Drops the Ball (Again) Edition

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This is up over at XE.com

Weekly Indicators for March 31 - April 3 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators column is  up at XE.com . The spring rebound is continuing.
Friday, April 4, 2014

The ECB's Over-Reliance On Future Projections At the Expense of Current Data

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This is over at XE.com http://community.xe.com/forum/xe-market-analysis/ecbs-over-reliance-economic-projections-expense-current-data

March jobs report: new highs in aggregate hours worked, private sector jobs

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- by New Deal democrat In March 192,000 jobs were added to the US economy.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at  6.7%. January and Febr...
Thursday, April 3, 2014

A maturing expansion: auto sales; PCE's v. real retail sales

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  - by New Deal democrat One of the themes of economic data this year is that the expansion is mature.  I'm not expecting to get mate...
Wednesday, April 2, 2014

A cautionary note about employment

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  - by New Deal democrat A lot of positive anticipation seems to be building about Friday's employment report, with many people predi...

Reported corporate profits as a leading indicator for stock prices: an updated look

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a  new post up at XE.com  updating a previous comment on corporate profits as a long leading indicator fo...

Is It Time To Become Positive About the EU?

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This is over at XE.com

Italian And Spanish ETFs Break Though Resistance

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Both the Italian and Spanish ETFs have been consolidating for the last 2-3 months.  The Italian (top chart) in an upward sloping wedge...
Monday, March 31, 2014

Yellen Looks At A Far Broader Set of Employment Data

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This is over at XE.com

Defensive Sectors Outperforming Since January 1

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  Since the first of the year, utilities and health care have outperformed consumer discretionary, consumer staples and the financi...

US Markets Appear to be Making A Short-Term Top

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The IWMs have fallen through short-term support.  Momentum is declining and the CMF is showing a slight volume outflow.  Prices are below...
Sunday, March 30, 2014

Satiation, imitation, human error, and variable reinforcement: 4 lessons from psychology for economic theory

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 - by New Deal democrat (You know the drill.  It's Sunday, and I take a break from graphs and data and voice some opinions.  Regular ...
Saturday, March 29, 2014

International Week In Review

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This is up over at XE.com

Weekly Indicators for March 24-28 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat OMG it's 'green shoots'!!! There's been a definite "spring-ing back" in the indicator...
Friday, March 28, 2014

Why I disagree that real private fixed residential investment forecasts economic improvement this year

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 -  by New Deal democrat Bill McBride a/k/a the nicest blogger in the econoblogosphere has forecast a strong 2014, which is in contrast t...

Brazil ETF Breaks Through Resistance

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UK Economy Hitting Its Stride

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This is over at XE.com
Thursday, March 27, 2014

My housing bet with Calculated Risk: February results

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 -  by New Deal democrat As most readers know  Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk and I have a charitable bet  about the direction of ...

Initial claims return to post-recession lows; gross domestic income improves

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  - by New Deal democrat Just a couple of quick hits about data released this morning. First of all, initial claims, at 311,000, caused...