Saturday, January 18, 2014

International Economic Week In Review: The Non-Threat of Inflation Continues

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Last week, the biggest news was the continued lack of global inflationary pressures.  The US’ core PPI was 1.4% Y/Y while the core CPI print...

Weekly Indicators for January 13 - 17 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators  are up over at XE.com . Remember the polar vortex from last week?  It seems to have kept co...
Friday, January 17, 2014

December housing permits and starts: least improvement in almost 3 years

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  - by New Deal democrat I discuss this morning's report on housing permits and starts over at XE.com. Both of these series contin...
Thursday, January 16, 2014

Housing: the last time low interest rates got 'less low,' it wasn't 'different this time'

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  - by New Deal democrat Two  signifiant arguments contra my contention that housing demand will actually decrease at least for awhile YoY...
Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Population adjusted initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate: an update

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 - by New Deal democrat Occasionally over the last few years I have remarked upon the usually tight relationship between population-adjus...
Tuesday, January 14, 2014

There is no "falling rate of personal consumption growth"

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  - by New Deal democrat Yesterday the blog "Capital Spectator" featured a post entitled  Is the falling rate of personal consu...

The relationship between interest rates and stock prices has changed

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  -  by New Deal democrat  The correlation between stock prices and interest rates has completely changed for the last 15 years, compared...

USD/JPY Tops Out For Now

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This is up over at XE.com
Monday, January 13, 2014

The state of the consumer: "I'm not dead yet!"

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  - by  New Deal democrat Like the character in the "Bring out your dead!" Monty Python skit, the American consumer keeps prote...
Sunday, January 12, 2014

International Week in Review: US Payroll Shocker Edition

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This is over at XE.com

A thought for Sunday: when it comes to inequality of opportunity, yes there IS something wrong with the Pareto principle

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  - by New Deal democrat   Prof. Brad DeLong  reposts an essay on inequality of opportunity from  Angus Deaton : Even if we believe th...
Saturday, January 11, 2014

Weekly Indicators for January 6 - 10 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat This week's edition of Weekly Indicators is  up at XE.com . Real M2 continues to decelerate, and could tur...
Friday, January 10, 2014

Unemployed and underemployed but want a job now

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  - by New Deal democrat Here is the measure of people who aren't in the labor force because they aren't looking for a job, but s...

BIG Employment Miss

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From the BLS: The unemployment rate declined from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent in  December, while total nonfarm payroll employment edged up...

Why I think EPI's "missing workers" claim is wrong, and maybe close to impossible

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 - by New Deal democrat [Update: graphs and links now added.] Today we will get the final employment report for 2013, and the alternati...
Wednesday, January 8, 2014

A rare stock market forecast for 2014

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  - by New Deal democrat I have a new post up  at XE.com , commenting on recent speculation about a stock market crash vs. a pullback due...
Monday, January 6, 2014

2014 forecast: a year of deceleration

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   - by  New Deal democrat My method of foecasting is pretty simple. In fact, so simple, I call it the K.I.S.S. method. Even though th...

Upper 90s-100 Area Still Tough on Oil Prices

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With the exception of the summer driving season (roughly late May - late September), oil prices have met with still resistance in the upp...
Saturday, January 4, 2014

International Week in Review

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Last week, the big news was from the manufacturing sector, which was the primary driver of most market activity.   Here's a link.

Weekly Indicators for Dec.30 - Jan. 2 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators column is  up at XE.com .  The coincident data looks good, but deceleration in the long lea...