The Bonddad Blog

Still nerdy after all these years

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Weekly Indicators: surprising strong September rebound edition

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  - by New Deal democrat In the rear view mirror, 2nd Quarter GDP was revised down to a miserable +1.3% annualised, and households dele...
Friday, September 28, 2012

Weekend golden retriever

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- by New Deal democrat This is the time of week when Bonddad normally posts photos of his doggies. Since at the moment he is medicate...

ECRI's recession call 1 year anniversary: pending revisions, still wrong

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- by New Deal democrat One year ago this Sunday Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI appeared on WSJ television and announced that the US was ...

New stock market highs = unlikely new recession has started

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- by New Deal democrat Yesterday I said it appeared likely that manufacturing - but not necessarily the economy as a whole - had slipp...
Thursday, September 27, 2012

OUCH! Did durable goods just jump off the fiscal cliff?

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- by New Deal democrat There's no getting arouind the ugly durable goods numbers this morning, shown below in blue, and "core...

A look at employment since the recession, measured 2 ways

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- by New Deal democrat A few months ago, Karl Smith of Modeled Behavior showed that there has been a stark bifurcation in the recove...
Wednesday, September 26, 2012

EVERY house price index has now turned positive

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- by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that It isn't just Case Shiller: almost every house price index has bottomed , spec...

A look at sales, measured 3 ways

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- by New Deal democrat The NBER defines a recession as a pronounced downturn in production, sales, employment, and income. Although th...
Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Bonddad Linkfest and Bonddad's Mini-Vacation

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Swiss national bank's bond buying lowers core yields (FT) Gold hits euro record high (FT) EU junk bond prices start to sag (FT) Econ...

Howdy, strangers

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- by New Deal democrat Hi. allow me to introduce myself. I used to blog here.... Well, at least it seems that way. It's been a...

Thoughts On the Election

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While we usually try to steer clear of political discussion here ("just the facts,  Mam"), it's hard to completely avoid what ...

Morning Market Analysis

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Today, let's start with oil, taking a look at the charts along multiple time frames. On the monthly chart, we see the spike to over...
Monday, September 24, 2012

Bonddad Linkfest

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Romney, GOP stuck in old America (Politico) 60 Minutes interviews with current candidates (CBS) Romney won't lower taxes (BB) Marki...

Stagnating LEIs, Weak Employment and Moderating Manufacturing Are Really Concerning

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Consider the following from the Conference Board's latest LEI press release: Note that the series have been stuck at a reading of...

Morning Market Analysis

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All of the major averages have broken through resistance established at the end of the summer and all consolidated gains last week....
Sunday, September 23, 2012

Liveblogging World War 2: an appreciation

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- by New Deal democrat On of my very favorite reads on the entire internet is Prof. Brad DeLong's continuing series, Liveblogging ...
Saturday, September 22, 2012

Weekly Indicators: the sharp bifurcation continues edition

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  - by New Deal democrat The big monthly news this week was August's LEI, which declined -0.1. This index is only up 0.1 for the l...
Friday, September 21, 2012

Weekend Weimar, Beagle and Pit Bull

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NDD will be here tomorrow with the weekly numbers; I'll be back on Monday.  Until then...

Housing Rebound Continues

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NDD and I have written pretty extensively about the housing market and how both of us think it's one of the possible bright spots for th...

Morning Market Analysis

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On the SPYs daily chart (bottom chart) we see that prices have consolidated in a downward sloping pennant pattern, moving into the 10 ...
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