Saturday, July 23, 2011

Weekly Indicators: economic cross-currents edition

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- by New Deal democrat This was a sparse week for monthly data. Housing permits and starts both increased to near 12 month highs. Partly...
Friday, July 22, 2011

How The Debt Debate Is Hurting the Economy

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From Slate: This Northern Virginia consulting firm, for instance, has recommended that companies "collect any fees owed your company ...

Lack of Demand Is Big Problem

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Above is a chart of the percentage change from a year ago in real personal consumption expenditures. Notice that the current pace of YOY pe...
Thursday, July 21, 2011

Friday Dollar Analysis

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Last week, I wrote the following about the dollar: All the EMAs are in a tight bunch, indicating a lack of overall direction from the marke...

Apple Stoers and pent-up housing demand

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- by New Deal democrat I got nothing at the moment, but here are two more items well worth reading: 1. BirdAbroad spots an Apple Stoer. No,...

Thursday Reads

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The GOPs Fuzzy Math . Is Consumer Spending the Problem? Debt Ceiling Debate Already Hurting Consumer Sentiment Why Employers Are Slow to Fi...

The Dow Jones Bond Average and pre-WW2 recessions

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- by New Deal democrat This continues my look at potential leading indicators as they may apply to pre-WW2 deflationary recessions. I have a...

Thursday Oil Market Analysis

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Last week, I wrote the following about the oil market: Overall, prices are moving about how I thought they would after the sell-off. Remem...
Wednesday, July 20, 2011

More on Food Inflation

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Earlier today, I noted that fundamental supply and demand issues are keeping food prices high. That got me thinking about the actual price ...

Real long term interest rates and recessions

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- by New Deal democrat One Salient Oversight is a kindred blogger who also dissects historical patterns of economic expansion and contracti...

The Federal Budget Problem In A Few Simple Graphs

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I originally posted this a little over a year ago , but considering the current budget debate, it seems to be a good time to post it again. ...
Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Wednesday Commodity Round-Up

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Before we look at charts, consider the following points. First, here is a graph of the YOY percentage change in the food component of CPI: N...

Housing and the economic stall

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- by New Deal democrat This morning's good news on housing permits (624,000) and starts (629,000) is particularly welcome because, in my...

Bonddad's $i$ter in Law in the WSJ

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Bonddad's hister in law is Heather MacCallister , who is a romance writer. She is in today's WSJ at this link on how to dress a Vic...

With Taxes This Low, Where's the Growth?

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The above chart from Calculated Risk. Here are his conclusions which I agree with: Both income (blue) and corporate taxes (red) are near...

For Those of You Who Think A Default is "No Big Deal"...

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There are people who are telling us that a US default would be "no big deal." To those people, I would offer the following: Treas...
Monday, July 18, 2011

Treasury Tuesdays

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Last week I wrote the following about the Treasury market: Overall, the last two days' price action is more a fundamental reaction to t...

Money supply and pre-WW2 recessions

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- by New Deal democrat This continues my look at potential leading indicators as they may apply to pre-WW2 deflationary recessions. I have...

2011 1H state tax revenues near nominal record, but stall in real terms

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- by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau has reported on state and local tax revenue collected in the first calendar quarter of 2011, and...

Economic Week in Review

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Consumer Spending: retail sales were up .1%, which is actually a negative number when you consider inflation. The internals were mixed w...