Saturday, July 9, 2011

Weekly Indicators: Stall vs. double-dip edition

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- by New Deal democrat The monthly data reported this week included both factory orders and ISM services positive, but slightly weaker tha...

A Closer Look At Employment, Pt II; Educational Achievement and Unemployment

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The above chart to me is still the most important chart of the unemployment series. It tells us that the higher the educational achievement...
Friday, July 8, 2011

Weekend Pitbull

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Yes -- it's been awhile since I've posted any pictures. Life has been really busy over the last few months. In addition, we have a...

Where Will Growth Come From in the Second Half?

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Yesterday, I noted that I see "muddling" growth of around 2% in the second half of the year, due to a variety of factors. Here I ...

Employment Report: Sucks Wind

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From the BLS: Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June (+18,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.2 p...
Thursday, July 7, 2011

Friday Dollar Analysis

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Last week, I wrote the following about the dollar: I'm still thinking the dollar is forming some type of bottom at this time. The EU...

The facts about Social Security and chain weighted CPI

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- by New Deal democrat There is a small furor in the political blogosphere today about Obama offering to index Social Security benefits to t...

Expect *another* poor nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow

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- by New Deal democrat Last month, when the consensus was for a payrolls gain of about +150,000, I said to expect a report more like +50,000...

Don't Expect a Second Half Rebound

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The general thought process of most analysts argues for a stronger second half of the year. I am not so optimistic for the following reason...

Thursday Oil Market Analysis

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Last week, I wrote the following about the oil market: My long-term prediction for oil is for prices to again move higher and stay there b...
Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Brazil's Yield Curve is Inverted

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From Bloomberg: This is not what you want to see in an economy that is driving world growth.

China Raises Rates Again

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From Bloomberg: China raised benchmark interest rates for the third time this year after inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since J...

The yield curve and pre-WW2 recessions

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- by New Deal democrat This continues my look at leading indicators as they may apply to pre-WW2 deflationary recessions. I have already loo...

A Noted Increase in the Calls for Infrastructure Spending

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From Hedge Fund Manager Barton Biggs: Instead, Mr. Biggs, former chief global strategist for U.S. investment banking powerhouse Morgan Stanl...

Treasury Tuesdays

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Last week, I wrote the following about the Treasury market: The fact that the long end of the curve didn't follow the belly higher is...
Tuesday, July 5, 2011

BRIC Economies Are Raising Short-Term Interest Rates

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Consider the follow charts of short-term rates in China, Brazil and India: Three of the four BRIC countries are hiking interest rates to com...

Economic Week in Review

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On Monday's I'm going to start looking at the previous week's major economic releases, analyzing the numbers along the same line...

Equity Week in Review and Preview of the Upcoming Week/Month

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Last week, I wrote the following about the markets: Right now, the 200 day EMAs are providing enough technical support to allow the market...
Monday, July 4, 2011

Happy Fourth of July

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We'll be back tomorrow morning when the markets open
Friday, July 1, 2011

Weekly Indicators: manufacturing and commercial construction improve edition

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- by New Deal democrat Monthly data released this week showed relief from the manufacturing slowdown, as the Chicago PME rebounded to a st...