Monday, December 20, 2010

Year End Look At the Treasury Market

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The primary trend for the IEFS has been a strong, upward sloping pattern over the last three years. However, notice that prices are current...

New Jobless Claims and the Unemployment Rate continued (I)

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- by New Deal democrat On Friday I noted that adjusting first time jobless claims by population gives you the "initial jobless claim...

Year End Look At the Stock Market

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Today I'm going to look at all the markets from a variety of time perspectives to see where we are in the cycle. First, let's rememb...
Friday, December 17, 2010

Back on Monday

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Sorry -- no dog pictures this weekend. We'll be back on Monday.

Weekly Indicators: the Consumer is Back edition

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- by New Deal democrat This week continued the spate of strongly improving data - except for housing. Both the Empire State and Philly Fed r...

No, Virginia, the CRA Didn't Cause the Financial Meltdown

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Once again, we're seeing the great lie that the Community Reinvestment Act was a cause of the financial meltdown in 2008. This is being...

Two views of Jobless Claims and Unemployment

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- by New Deal democrat While the recent decline in first time unemployment claims is certainly good news, the fact remains that over 400,000...

Philly Fed Increases

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From Bloomberg: Manufacturing activity has picked up this month in the Mid-Atlantic region. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's index ro...
Thursday, December 16, 2010

Yesterday's Market

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First, note that equity prices broke through a key downward sloping trendline yesterday. Note the sharp, early morning sell-off (a) followed...

Initial Claims Continue to Move In the Right Direction

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From Bloomberg: Fewer workers than forecast filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, pointing to a drop in firings that signals the...

A Closer Look At Inflation

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The BLS has issued all of the inflation reports for the month, so this is a good time to take a look at the overall data to see if we are s...

Real Retail Sales, the "Holy Grail" leading indicator for jobs, signals more growth ahead

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- by New Deal democrat The blowout upside report and revisions for retail sales, and the somnolent inflation report, show that real (infl...

Yesterday's Market

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Over the last five days, notice the SPYs are forming a rounding top. In addition, the rally up was grinding -- prices were moving higher, b...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Empire State Back in Positive Territory

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From the NY Fed: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions improved in December for New York State manufacturers. A...

Industrial Production Increases

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From the Federal Reserve: Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in November after a decline of 0.2 percent in October. The rate of c...

Why Have Bond Yields Increased?

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Over the past month, interest rates have increase from 2.62% to 3.3%. In Monday's FT , the paper proffers three reasons for the increas...
Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Yesterday's Market

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Notice that in the last two days, the markets have had a late day sell-off on high volume. This indicates traders are getting nervous about...